この写真は、私が持っている、古い世界地図（国際地学協会発行）を写させてもらったものです。写真のほぼ中央部の赤っぽいところ（RUSSIA）が、ロシアの「飛び地」の国土であるカリーニングラードです。南は、ポーランド、北は、リトアニアに接しています。ロシアのプーチンは、もし、この飛び地を攻撃する国があったら、容赦なく、反撃をすると語っています。
今回は、プーチンが、しきりに核兵器の使用をほのめかしていること、日本の高市首相と簗農水相のこと、福島原発の事後処理への疑問の３点について書いてみたいと思います。
初めは、プーチンがよく口にする核使用についてです。１３日にヤフーに配信されたForbes JapanのKevin Holden Platt 氏の論考を参考にさせてもらいます。調べてみましたが、Kevin Holden という方は、何人もいて、よくわかりません。私が、参考にするのは、おそらく、米国のハーバード大学の教授をしている方だと思います。以下、敬称は、なるべく略します。
論考によると、１０月１日に開かれたバルダイ会議において、プーチンは、ウクライナを支援する欧州諸国に対して、核ミサイルを発射する可能性について、これまでで、最も直接的な警告を発したそうです。
ウクライナの首都、キーウで開催された安全保障会議で、ポーランドのラドスワフ・シコルスキ副首相兼外相は、「NATOは、ロシアを容易に打ち負かせる」と発言したそうです。これを知ったプーチンの盟友であるニコライ・パトルシェフ大統領補佐官は、「シコルスキは、ロシアと戦争になった場合、ポーランドは、２～３日で消滅してしまう事実を認識できていない」と語ったそうです。ロシアは、戦術核兵器の世界最大の保有国です。プーチンは、「こうした兵器を絶対に使わないという保証ができるかどうかと言えば、絶対にできない」と語り、そして、「ロシアが現在保有するような攻撃能力を有している国は他にない」と続けたそうです。そして、「これこそが、われわれの競争上の優位性だ」と断言したということです。
Holden氏の論考では、その後、様々な検討がされていますが、私は、以下、プーチンが、またはロシアが、今後何年かの間に、NATO加盟のどこかの国などに対して、実際に核兵器を使うことがあるかどうか、検討してみたいと思います。プーチンは、完全な独裁者です。ロシアに関わることは、すべて独断で決定することができます。ロシア側の兵士等の死者は、５０万人を超えると言われている「ウクライナへの侵攻」を、４年以上も続けさせています。ロシア国民においても、家族や息子等が、戦場に派遣され、死んだり、けがをしたリしている状態が、延々と続いているわけであり、戦争反対、すぐ終戦をと誰もが願っているはずです。それでも、プーチンは、平然と戦争を続けさせています。
プーチンは、現在、７４歳です。最近は、他国からもほとんど指摘されなくなりましたが、しばらく前までは、パーキンソン症だとか、余命は長くないとか、言われていました。今は、健康状態はいいのかも知れませんが、いずれにしても、高齢の独裁者であり、核兵器の使用について、どんな判断をするかは、「見当がつかない」というしかないと思います。
ただ、それでは、この拙稿も意味がないことになってしまいますので、わたしは、さらに考えたいと思います。そこで、ロシアが使うとした場合、どのような規模の核兵器になるかが、問題になるはずです。例えば、NATO内のどこかの国に使用するとして、どの程度の被害者、死者が出る核兵器を使うでしょうか。１０００人とか、１００００人とか、あるいは、全滅とか（卑劣な仮定ですが、お許しを）。いずれにしても、多くの死者が出るはずであり、もしロシアがこのような核兵器を使えば、世界中の国々が激しい批判をするはずです。さすがに、米国なども、黙ってはいないでしょう。
ですから、私としては、いかにプーチンであっても、核兵器を使用することはないはずだと考えます。脅しの段階に留まるはずです。
次は、高市首相と簗（前）農水相についてです。簗が、辞任したので、今更あれこれと書いても仕方ない気もするのですが、首相と農水相とが関係する不祥事であり、非難するべき点もあるので、書くことにします。栃木県内の自民党の会合で、２市町の道路予算をカットしてやったと発言することには、ただあきれるばかりです。もっとも、簗にしたら、どこかで、そうした発言をしないと、「折角の行動」が、党員や支持者に伝わらないと考えたからでしょう。しかし、その発言のために、自分の「愚かな判断」が、問題になるとは考えなかったのでしょうか。また、高市については、２月の衆院選での簗の選挙の応援演説で、「簗ちゃんは私の知恵袋。いなければ、高市が困る。」などと語っていたそうです。ふたりは、同じ「安倍派」に属していたはずで、親しい間柄だったのでしょうが、首相であった人（解散したから）の応援にしては、私情を出し過ぎていたことになるでしょう。高市は、簗が、すでにかなりの批判を受けていても、農水相を辞任させようとはしませんでした。簡単に辞任させては、首相としての「権威・威厳」に関わると考えたのでしょう。しかし、参議院で、野党側は、簗の問責決議案を提出しようとしていたこと、また、簗が、バスのチャーターなどをしていたことなどを知って、高市は、簗に辞任させようと決めたのです。それからは、時の首相が口にすることは、普通ではあり得ないはずの、「ダサい」という「俗語」まで使って、簗を非難する姿勢を示したのです。まあ、このへんのことは、高市の［勝手」であり、べつに非難する気はありませんが、不要と見れば、すぐにこうした姿勢を示すことは、髙市の非情性を現わしていると言えるでしょう。
最後は、２０１１年３月の福島第一原子力発電所の事故についてです。１０月１２日の日本経済新聞６面の記事を参考にさせてもらいます。あまり詳しく触れて、書こうとすると、長くなってしまうので、第一原発の「事故処理費用」に関してだけに絞って、書きたいと思います。政府は、費用については、２３・４兆円と見積もっているようです。そして、東電には、約１７兆円を負担するよう、求めているそうです。記事によると、「福島の復興と賠償。そのために東電は存続を許された」とあります。今から１０年ほど前、「東電の会長に就いた数土文夫氏は、当時の安倍晋三首相から念押しされたという」と、続きます。
第一原発については、津波への対策が不十分であったと言われていますが、津波の襲来、以後の原発のいくつかの事故等々につぃて、すべてが東電の責任ではありません。想定外の大地震、大津波が、原発を破壊させた原因となったわけで、政府は、自らの責任も自覚しなければなりません。自然現象による被害であれ、人為的な被害であれ、政府には、被害に対応する責任があります（現在の政府も、当然、対応しなければなりません）。日経の記事の書き方によるせいもあるかと思いますが、東電に１７兆円も出させ、おまけに「存続を許す」などというのは、あまりにも、政府の［勝手」が過ぎます。東電を存続させなければ、関東周辺の電気はどうなりますか。
故安倍首相が、約束させたのかどうかは、別にして、私は、国側が、１７兆円を負担すべきであり、東電には、６・３兆円か、または、もっと減らした額を負担させるようにするべきです。東電の２５年度の利益は、４１７３億円だそうです。１兆円には届いていないのです。１７兆円も払えというのが、いかに無理か、現在の政府にも分かるでしょう。
東電に１７億円出せというのは、逆に見れば、政府は、第一原発の賠償、廃炉、復興等々に、真剣に取り組もうとしていないことになります。強く言えば、「福島県を放って置く」ことです。私のブログで、こう書いても、与党の、そして野党の国会議員も、動くことはないでしょうが、日経の記事もあるのですから、廃炉、復興等々について、改めて、国の問題として、考えてほしいものです。米国のトランプを説得するのに、約８５兆円も投資するというのに、原発の廃炉、復興等々には、 ６兆円くらいしか出さない気なのでしょうか。政府としての対応とは言えないでしょう。
プーチンはいつまで生きる生きている限り侵攻続ける気かよ
後妻との子供も四人いるんだろ侵攻やめて辞任しろよう
プーチンでなくてよかった高市はせいぜい二年経てば辞めるさ
慶大や東大で何学んだか挨拶さえもろくにできない
廃炉など知るかととぼけ国費からカネを出さない与党幹部ら
８５兆円米の投資止め廃炉に回せすぐにできるぞ
毎日新聞掲載拙詠
故郷の桜の名所巡り終え娘夫婦は異国に帰る
（２０１８．４．１６）
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