１０月１日の１１時頃の写真です。我が家のベランダで、写しました。久しぶりの晴天です。９月２９日のニュースによると、東京都内では、２９日までで、３４日間、連続で、降雨が続いたそうです。東京都は、太平洋の南鳥島など、１６００ｋｍも離れた地域も含まれますから、どこかでは、雨が降ると思いますが、それにしても、３４日間連続の降雨というのは、驚くべきです。３０日も、降ったかも知れないので、３５日連続になったかも知れません。私の住む埼玉県も、９月は、毎日のように雨でした。晴れた時間なんて、月内で、３０時間にもならないかも知れません。とにかくの異常気象でした。
今週は、米国の中間選挙の展望、英国での労働党の支持率回復の動き、日本における外国人の永住許可・内閣広報予算の増加の３点について、書いてみたいと思います。
はじめは、米国の中間選挙の展望です。ヤフーニュースのデイリー新潮、藤和彦氏の投稿を参考にさせてもらいます。以下、敬称は、なるべく略します。
９月１５日で、共和党、民主党の予備選挙は、すべて終了したそうです。共和党では、勝利した候補者の９割超が、トランプの推薦だったそうです。ロイター/イプソス の調査結果によると、トランプに「好感を持つか」それとも「反感を持つか」と聞くと、好感を持つは、全体の３２％であり、「過去最低水準に落ち込んだ」ということです。また、インフレと生活費高騰へのトランプの対応については、「支持する」は、全体の１７％にすぎなかったそうです。さらに、中間選挙については、登録有権者の４３％が民主党に、３５％が共和党に投票すると回答したということです。
トランプは、中国の習近平国家主席との会談を重視したようですが、支持率回復にはつながらなかったと見られているようです。さらには、共和党のある上院議員は、トランプは圧政者と過ごす時間が増え、民主主義国のリーダ－と過ごす時間が減っていると語ったそうです。
このように、ロイター/イプソスの調査結果に基づく藤氏の考察を読ませてもらうと、トランプ陣営は、かなり苦しくなっていると言えそうです。だいたい、これまでのトランプの一次政権、そしてバイデン後の二次政権の「実績」を見れば、トランプの、そして共和党陣営の支持が、低下していくのは、当然のことだ、と私は思います。関税だ、戦争だと騒ぐだけで、米国内の経済を再生する努力は、ほとんどせず、自分の関係企業の収益は、大幅増、そして、毎週のように「故郷」へ帰り、ゴルフを行う（この行為が、毎週約２０億円の国費の浪費とされる）「政治家」が、支持を失っていくのは、当然のことです。私は、米国民の良識を信じたいと思います。良識が、現在の「悪夢」を克服していくはずだと思います。そして、残りのトランプの政権期間をレイムダック（ｌａｍｅ ｄｕｃｋ）にさせてほしいと思います。
次は、英国の政治状勢についてです。１０月１日の毎日新聞７面の記事、ヤフーの英国の政治状勢の諸記事を参考にさせてもらいます。英国では、 ２０２４年の７月４日の下院選挙において、労働党が大勝しました。６５０議席中、労働党４１２議席（２１１議席増）、保守党１２１議席（２５１議席減）という結果でした。他の議席は、他の諸政党が得たことになります。その後、注目されることになるリフォームＵＫは、この時点では、僅か５議席でした。
保守党の敗因としては、ＥＵ離脱などもあり、政治が安定していなかったこと、物価や高熱費、住宅価格の高騰などへの不満が高かったことなどが挙げられるようです。「政権交代を」という願いが高まっていたことになるでしょう。スターマー首相は、豊かではなかった家庭に生まれ、その後、大学で法律（法学）を学び、弁護士、英国検察庁の公訴局長等の職に就きました。政治家を志したのは遅く、２０１５年に初めて下院議員に当選しました。
大勝した労働党の党首であり、政権運営には、大きな期待が寄せられましたが、彼は、意外な「脆さ（もろさ）」も抱えていたようでした。スターマーは、首相就任後、まもなく、約１０００万人の年金受給者に対して、「冬季燃料費」の支給を停止するという決定を行いました。まさに、多くの支持者を「敵に回す」策でした。その後、あまりに反対が強く、撤回することになりましたが、「最初の失敗」であったと言えるでしょう。さらに、その後、高額納税者からか、高給スーツの仕立券、プロサッカーの入場券などをもらっていたことが明らかになりました。首相なのですから。高級スーツにしても、サッカーの入場券にしても、自費で買えばいいでしょう。信頼感が、次第に、低下していくことになりました。党内からも、「スターマーは、目的意識がない、自分でも何をしたいのか分かっていないのではないか」などと言われるようになったそうです。
２０２６年５月１９日には、１３６の自治体で、約５０００議席の座が争われる地方選が行われました。選挙結果は、次の通りです。労働党１０２３議席（－１４２９）、保守党５６１議席（－７８８）改革党（リフォームUＫ）１４４８議席（＋１４４６）
この結果、次の下院選では、改革党が第１党になるだろうと言われるようになりました
労働党では、党首が代わり、７月２０日にアンディ・バーナムが首相に就任しました。バーナムは、ゴードン・ブラウンが率いたブラウン政権では、政務担当秘書官、文化・メディア・スポーツ大臣、保健大臣などを歴任しました。その後、マンチェスター市の市長選に出馬し、市長も務めました。市長としても高い評価を受け、「北王」とまで、呼ばれたそうです。そして、労働党の党首選に出るため、下院議員となる必要があり、わざわざ下院議員を辞任し、選挙を設定してくれた労働党員に代わって、下院選に当選し、党首、首相になったわけです。
バーナム首相は、電気料金の付加価値税５％の廃止、バス運賃に２ポンド（約４２０円）の上限を設定、マンチェスター市に、「北の首相官邸」を設立、などの政策によって、「好評を博している」と言われているようです。
また、一方のリフォーム UKでは、ファラージ党首の金銭問題が発覚しました。彼は、議員になる前の２０２４年に、タイ拠点の英国人仮想通貨投資家から、５００万ポンド（約１１億円）の寄付を受けていたのです。英国では、下院議員になる前の１２か月に受け取った金銭や便宜については、申告する義務があるとされているそうです。ファラージの「寄付」は、この義務に該当するのですが、彼は、申告していなかったそうです。彼は、申告義務には、該当しない金銭だと主張しているそうですが、仮想通貨ギャンブルに関わる他の人物からも、警備や宿泊施設の便宜を受けていたことが分かったそうです。
飛ぶ鳥を落とす勢いのあったリフォームUＫですが、党首自身が、このような問題に関わっていては、支持率にも影響が出るでしょう。事実、UＫの支持率は、低下する傾向がみられるそうです。
以上、歴史のような記述になってしまいましたが、お許しを。
最後は、日本における「永住許可」の条件等が厳しくなること、内閣広報予算の大幅増についてです。１０月１日の毎日新聞３面の記事を参考にさせてもらいます。まず、永住許可の条件ですが、今回の決定は、「外国人には、永住許可はさせない」という意図が示されていると言えるでしょう。毎日の記事から、言えることは、永住するには、収入が毎年４５０万円以上なければならないということになるようです。また、年金の受給額については、日本で、３０年間、厚生年金に加入していた場合に受け取れる水準でなければならないとしています。これでは、ほとんどの外国人の方々が、永住資格を取れないでしょう。日本で働いてもいいけれど、年を取ったら、自分の国に帰れよと言っているようなものです。
また、在留する期間の更新、資格変更の手数料についても、今までは、永住申請が１万円、その他はすべて６０００円であったのが、永住申請は２０万円と２０倍に、その他も、１万円から７万５千円に上げられています。これらも、日本に長くいさせないようにしようという意図が表れています。政治家や役人には、なぜこうした排除意識が強いのでしょう。ですから、日本居住か故国帰郷かはっきりしない人々の収容施設等で、「不審死」などの「事故」が起こることが多いのです。職員による暴行等で、外国人の方々が、けがをしたり、亡くなったりしても、収容施設等では、うやむやにされてしまうことが多いのです。これらの傾向は、いつになっても、改まらないようです。
次は、内閣の広報予算の要求が、従来の７億円程度が、７２億円と、１０倍超になったことについてです。この件については、先週のブログでも書きましたが、その後、どの新聞でだったか、内閣の広報関係の職員の発言を目にしましたが、SNS等の発信だけで、７２億円使うつもりでいるようだと知って、驚きました。消費税の２年間減税の分の１０億円さえ、どこから出されるのか分からないというのに、公報で、７２億円要求というのは、まさに「狂気の沙汰」としか言えません。官邸に君臨する高市も高市ですが、取り巻きの職員などにも、あきれるばかりです。ろくでもない「広報」など、年間、１億円だって、多すぎると思います。
不正して大統領になる者もいるけどトラは不正はないか
ともかくもトランプなんか大統領務まらないよ早く辞任を
英国は世界でもっと活躍を労働党に期待してます
普通にと心がければバーナムもそこそこ行くよファラージ不正
ＥＵも移住自由はどうかなあ英国だって移住で抜けた
毎日新聞掲載拙詠
高齢者施設に入るもネットなど使う人らも増えているらし
（２０１８．１．２９）
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