この写真は、ヤフー上でのものです。利用させてください。よろしくお願いします。トランプ大統領にしては、よく写っている写真だと思います。まるで、「よい政治家」のような写真です。今週は、このトランプ大統領に関しての米国の政局、そして、５日に国会において表明された日本の高市政権の「所信表明演説」の２点について書いてみたいと思います。以下、敬称は、なるべく略します。
まず、トランプの政治状況についてです。７日の日本経済新聞の７面、英国のFINANCIAL TIMES のUSナショナルエディター、エドワード・ルース氏の論文を参考にさせてもらいます。（FINANCIAL TIMESは、英国の経済紙ですが、２０１５年より日本経済新聞社の傘下にあるそうです。存じませんでした。）
ルース氏は、「米政治、中間選で変わらず」と見出しをつけています。彼としては、１１月３日の中間選挙においては、当然、共和党が負けることは、想定しているのです。彼は、トランプを「強く支持する」という米国人は、５人に１人にも満たないと書いています。ですから、中間選挙では、共和党は、おそらく上下両院で、少数派になるだろうということであり、状況は、「変わる」はずなのですが、彼は、トランプや共和党の「動き」は、変わらないだろうと見ていることになります。
トランプは、１期、２期政権において、ほぼ独断による経済戦争や軍事行動を、議会を通さずに行ってきました。民主党の議員たちは、トランプの決定に対して、１期目では、２回の弾劾訴追を行いましたが、いずれも上院の弾劾裁判で、トランプは、無罪となりました（私は、このあたりについては、記憶があいまいです）。２期政権以降では、民主党は、議会を通しての「反対行動」は、おこなっていないはずです。ですから、筆者のルース氏は、共和党は、上下両院で、少数派になっても、トランプは、今までと変わらない「独断行動」をするだろうと見ているのでしょう。
ただ、彼は、トランプは、「自身と家族、財産を法の追求から守り、さらにはその財産を増やしたいと考えているだろう」ととらえているようです。また、今後は、トランプ政権内での権力闘争が強まるだろうとも、書いています。バンスやルビオなど、次期大統領を狙う人は、トランプと自身の野心のどちらを選ぶのか、究極の選択を迫られることになると続けています。
ルース氏は、あえて、「変わらず」と見出しをつけていますが、変わる点が生じるのは、当然のことです。特に、上下両院で、民主党が多数派になれば、トランプの「暴走」は、かなり抑えられるようになるでしょう。トランプが、「拒否権」を主張しても、民主党が対抗することもできるようになるでしょう。いわゆるトランプの「レイムダック」が実現するはずだと思います。
それにしても、何度も書く気がしますが、トランプの「バラマキ攻勢」には、あきれるばかりです。８日のヤフー上の「デイリー新潮」によると、トランプは、２０００万人を超える高齢者に９０ドル（約１万４２０円）を給付すると投稿（２日、SNSへ）。また、オバマケア（医療保険制度改革法）の還付金を、現政権が約１００万人の米国民に払い戻すと説明したそうです。金額は、１人当たり５００ドル（約７万９０００円）です。このほか、９月の党大会では、「中間選挙において、上下両院の多数派を維持できれば、米国の市民権を持つすべての成人に、１人当たり５０００ドル（約７９万円）を配ると語っているのです。こんなことを語った政治家が、かつて、世界にいたでしょうか。恥ずかしくないのでしょうか。共和党内の側近も、もはや誰も忠告できない状態になっているわけでしょう。様々な国家予算を、選挙の「バラマキ」に使おうとしているわけです。米国も、とんでもない「大統領」を出現させてしまったものです。
次は、日本の高市政権の所信表明演説についてです。５日の国会において、行われました。所信の「はじめに」において、高市は、「経世済民」という、古代の中国の用語を使用しました。世を経め民を済う（よをおさめたみをすくう）という意味になると言われます。古代であればともかく、２１世紀の民主主義国家を標榜する日本において、首相が掲げるには、ふさわしくない用語だと思います。
高市は、今年の１月、国会が始まるべき初日に突然の解散を宣言し、衆議院選挙に突入する「戦術」を行使しました。そして、選挙運動においては、消費税ゼロ（２年間限定）を「悲願」だと叫び、その上、奈良の高市事務所においては、様々な動画を投稿するなどの「運動」を行い、特に「中道改革連合」を、否、「前立憲民主党」の候補者を叩きました。そうしたことが「勝因」となったのか、自民党だけで、４６５議席中の３１６議席を獲得する大勝を勝ち取ったのです。高市事務所の「選挙運動」は、その後の国会において、大きな問題になりました。週刊文春や週刊現代などの「告発」記事が、問題を提起したからです。国会においても、高市首相には、激しい追及が行われましたが、『知らない」、「関係ない」などの巧みな言動によって、なんとか切り抜けたというところです。
こうした経緯のある高市が、今になって、「経世済民」などを掲げても、全く説得力がないという気がします。ともかく、首相なのですから、世を治め、民を救うことができると思うことは自由ですが、果たして、できるのでしょうか。
以下、その他の問題、３点について書きます。
１点目は、最優先課題を、経済の力で、国民の暮らしを守り、希望ある未来を切りひらくとしていることについてです。首相が行うべきことは、何よりもまず「政治」です。政治に注ぐ力が、あり余っているのであれば、経済的な政治を進めることもよいかとは思いますが、ほとんどの首相にとっては、無理な課題となります。故安倍首相は、「アベノミクス」などと、経済重視の政策を掲げました。日銀なども、２％の物価上昇を叫び続けましたが、とうとう、達成できないままに日銀総裁は退任しました。アベノミクスにしても、果たして、成果と言えるものがあったのでしょうか。私は、何もなかったのではないかとさえ思っています。
高市政権が、「責任ある積極財政」を掲げても、では、具体的にどう動くのかと問われれば、とまどうことになるでしょう。国費をつぎ込むと言っても、簡単なことではありません。多くの分野においては、すでに企業が関わっています。ですから、国費をつぎ込むべき先に誤りが生じ、巨額の国費が全くの無駄になるという心配もあります。また、例えば、政府が、企業を指導し、投資を勧めても、企業が従うとは限りません。企業にすれば、失敗しても、政府は助けてくれないからです。
（また、高市は、２０４０年までに、官民で、３７０兆円を投資するなどと、乱暴な構想を掲げています。高市が、いつまで首相でいられるでしょう。４０年までとは、語ること自体が不遜すぎる暴言です。まあ、さすがに、この暴論には、演説内では、触れませんでしたが。）
まあ、このくらいにしておいて、以後は、髙市政権の経済活動をしっかりと見ていくことにしたいと思います。
２点目は、高市が大騒ぎという感もある「消費税・支援金」についてです。来年の４月から、２年間、飲食料品の消費税を１％とし、その１％分は、所得に応じた支援金とすることで、消費税額を実質ゼロにするという対策です。高市の「悲願」が、実現するというわけです。勿論、飲食料品の消費税が、ゼロになれば、確かに家計にとっては、支出が減ることは確かでしょう。しかし、ひとりひとりの国民にとっては、支出の減額を実感できない程度の「減税」でしかないだろうと、私は、思います。私は、スーパー等で、買い物をします。洋菓子、和菓子、せんべいなどを買おうとすると、ものにもよりますが、２００円から３００円くらいするもの（パック入り）が多いような気がします。例えば、現在、３００円のものが、来年４月から、７％安くなるとすると、２７９円です。５パック買っても、１０５円安くなるだけです。女性であれば、このくらいの支出減でも、「安い」と実感できるかも知れませんが、私などは、「たいして変わらない」という気がします。勿論、１本５０００円の日本酒を買うのであれば、３５０円安くなりますが、いずれにしても、髙市さんに感謝したくなるような支出減では、ありません。「悲願」とは、よく言ったものです。選挙目当ての出任せだったことがよく分かります。
３点目は、衆議院議員の定数削減の問題です。これは、これから書きますが、高市と維新との奇妙な関係からの「改正案」であり、絶対に認めることはできません。高市は、自民党の総裁選挙で、勝利し、総裁となりました。しかし、その時は、衆議院においても、自民党の議員は、過半数には、なっていませんでした。おまけに、公明党が、連立から離脱し、野党がまとまれば、高市は、首相の座を奪われかねないという状況でした。高市は、維新に連立を呼びかけました。維新は、喜んで、加わりました。その結果、高市は、首相になることができたのです。高市は、自民党内には、明確な「支持者」はいません。高市にとっては、維新の議員が、貴重な「同志？」になったのです。２月の衆院選で、自民党が大勝したので、維新との連立は、解消してもいいくらいなのですが、恩義のある高市は、勿論、維新を切ることはできません。
維新は、大阪の府議会、いくつかの市議会において、議員定数の削減を主張し、実行していきました。そうした過程の中で、府議会やいくつかの市議会において、多数派になっていったのです。維新にとっては、その達成感が忘れられないのでしょう。国会においても、議員の削減を主張しだしたのです。現在では、衆議院の比例区の議員の削減を主張しています。この主張が実現したとしても、維新にとっては、多少でも有利になるのは、近畿ブロックくらいのものでしよう。維新は、とにかく、削減をしたいだけなのです。この主張に対しては、中小の政党は、「ふざけるな」とか「何を言ってるんだ」とかと、怒っています。比例区は、中小の政党にとっては、当選が期待できる候補者が多くなる、貴重な選挙区です。維新は、中小の政党を怒らせたいだけなのかと思うくらいです。そして、自民党にとっても、比例区の削減は、困ることなのです。比例区の定数が減れば、選挙区で敗れた場合の「救い」の確率が下がってしまうからです。
高市は、維新への「義理」があるので、比例区の定数削減に取り組むことになります。維新は、高市が、手を抜かないように、凝視し続けることでしょう。私は、日本維新の会は、どうしようもない政党だと思います。いったい、誰が、ヘゲモニーを握っているのでしょう。今でも、あの男なのかという気もします。
（お詫び） 前回のブログで、消費税減額の２年分を １０億円 と書いてしまいました。１０兆円と書くべきでした。申しわけございません。
公金を配ると言って選挙戦勝とうとするのまるで泥棒
トランプよもう十分だ語るなよ引退後でも考えてれば
週末の帰郷は止めよゴルフなどすることはない国費の浪費だ
積極だ強力だあと言うけれど経済策は勢いじゃない
ともかくも在任中のこと言えよ４０年まで語るのは無駄
簗ちゃんを持ち上げるねえ好きなのかあんたに似ててこずるい奴だ
毎日新聞掲載拙詠
一匹になってしまった飼い猫に他の猫の死を伝えられない
（２０１８．４．１０）
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